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Environmental Scan: Career Development System Report Card Future Priorities and Supporting Documentation
The Northeast Region of Michigan is comprised of eight counties, (Alcona, Alpena, Cheboygan, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, Otsego and Presque Isle) covering a land area of 4,809.9 square miles and hosts a population of 134,947 (1998 census estimate). The environmental scanning process for Northeast Michigan, Region 21, has included a comprehensive review of data related to the demographics of this eight county Region including population growth and trends; income, poverty and educational attainment levels; a review of the economic and business conditions including current and future labor supply and need for skilled labor in the Region; and information not only regarding the fastest growing occupations but those considered “high-wage, high skill”. The status of technology within the Region and the limitations of technology availability in the Region were reviewed. Data regarding the Career Development System education and training opportunities available to support “high-wage, high-skill” jobs has been reviewed as well. This data forms the base for the preliminary conclusions and priorities reached by the partners and communities participating in the development of this document. The document is offered with the Regional Priority Goals presented first, followed by proposed Success Measures identified to address the Priorities. The rationale and supporting documentation for the Priorities is provided with each Priority Goal and set of Success Measures. ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT Priority Goal I: Increase Academic Achievement and Graduation Rates The data compiled in the environmental scan revealed that graduation rates for five of the 17 K-12 districts in Northeast Michigan are below the state average in 1997-1998. Additionally, the education attainment levels across the region are lower than the state averages. Success Measures 1.Compile complete 5-year graduation trends for all K-12 districts and community colleges in the region.Each K-12 district and college in the region will meet or exceed the state graduation rate average and each will increase the graduation rate by 3% over the next three years. 2.Assemble complete graduation trends for Adult Education programs and increase the number of adults with a minimum of a high school diploma or GED by 3% over each of the next three years. 3.Generally across the Region, the MEAP scores do not meet or exceed the state averages. No district consistently has met the state average during the reporting period.Public awareness will be increased across the region regarding the importance of MEAP.Districts will establish numerical targets for the increase in student success on MEAP over the next three years. 4.Career and Technical programs have low enrollment and completion rates, program completion will increase by 3% per year for each of the next three years for both high school and community college programs. 5.A gap identified was the lack of consistent measure, across the Region, of the mastery of skills.Assessment of SCANS skills or “industry specific” skills is occurring on a very limited basis, school districts will assess the mastery of SCANS skills and will increase the percent of students achieving skills mastery by 3% each year over the next three years. Rationale Within Northeast MWA Region 21 there are seventeen (17) public K-12 school districts served by three (3) ISD’s as well as a small number of private, parochial or charter schools that serve a population of 134,947 (1998 population figures) in the 8 county Region. Three (3) community colleges provide post-secondary options to the Region as well as several four-year colleges/universities that offer some programs (primarily in the business arena) in the Region.Over the past six (6) years the public K-12 school enrollments have ranged annually from a low of 236 students (in the smallest district), to over 5,843 students (in the largest district). Enrollments in eight of the districts have been decreasing since 1994, seven districts have remained relatively stable and two districts have seen increases: Gaylord and Inland Lakes. Overall, enrollments in the region increased from a total of 22,242 in 1994-95 to a maximum of 22,657 in 1996-97. Since 1997-98 total enrollments have declined to their current number (1999-2000) of 21,956. Although “schools of choice” may have had some impact on the enrollment figures, the changes noted are not similar for other schools in the districts that might have expected enrollment changes based on the “schools of choice” initiative. Home schooling appears to be having an impact on K-12 enrollment, however it is impossible to determine the extent of the impact since such students are not required to register with the district, ISD or state. The percentage of students graduating from all schools in the Northeast MWA has been increasing during the reporting period so that in 1997-98 (the last year data is available) twelve of the 17 districts exceeded the state average for graduation of 82.8%. Schools in the region not meeting the state average for the 1997-98 reporting year had, in previous years, met or exceeded state averages [See Enrollment and Graduation Rates data, Appendix B, Table 31]. The ISD’s provide a variety of services to the districts within their service areas including assistance and some funding support for vocational-technical programs, provision for student tracking systems, teacher in-services, support for state wide initiatives such as the state-wide “EDP” project, “School to Work”, “Tech Prep”, “Career Pathways”, and programs for students with special needs, including transportation services. Each ISD includes both large districts with enrollments greater than 900 students, and small schools with annual enrollments of 500 students or less. While the graduation rates for high school enrollees has been increasing, the number of persons age 25 years or older (at the time of the 1990 census) who reported as not having graduated from high school was 28.5 percent compared to the state average of 23 percent. Individuals indicating that they had achieved a minimum of the high school diploma but had not obtained a bachelor’s degree averaged 71 percent compared to the state average of 76.8 percent. The percentage of individuals (again based on 1990 census data) with a bachelors degree or higher was 10.3 percent compared to the state average of 17.4 percent. The 2000 census data will be useful in planning for the higher education needs of the Region. It is expected that the mix of educational preparation in the general population will change with the influx of retirees and additional “professionals” in all communities. However, based on the 1990 census, a need apparently exists for additional “higher education” opportunities to be made available in the Region. Some recent surveys in the Region have supported a need for additional higher education opportunities.(Recent “University Center” surveys). School funding varies with the size of the school with per-pupil expenditures generally in line with revenues. The Region overall is below the state average of $7139 for general fund revenues and $4110 for per pupil expenditures. Three districts exceeded the state average for revenues (by a maximum of $600), all other districts were between $258 to $1319 under the state average. Per-pupil expenditures range between $3277 and $4507. Only three districts exceed the state average for per-pupil expenditures. [See Appendix B, Table 34 for complete data] Student performance on the MEAP in all districts varies widely. Because the MEAP has been modified several times during the data period, it is difficult to make a relationship between the programs available at the district level and student performance on the MEAP. However, a review of the data available for the Region suggests that students from districts with smaller class sizes may perform at higher levels on the MEAP. Overall, the scores by district do not, for the most part and for the years reported, meet or exceed the State of Michigan averages for the MEAP. No district was able to consistently meet State of Michigan averages.[See Appendix B, Tables 35-37 for complete data on MEAP results.] MEAP results for 1998-99 are not available for review.If schools are to use MEAP as a tool for strengthening programs and curriculum a greater longitudinal database of results will be needed upon which districts can make curriculum decisions. WORKFORCE READINESS Priority Goal II: Increase Enrollments in Workforce Readiness Programs The Scan of the Career Development System identified several areas of strength as well as areas for concern. All K-12 systems in the Region participated in the “Career Preparation Initiative” and related “Gap Analysis”. This process identified common areas of need related to preparation for workforce readiness including:Integration of academic and technical education, increased linkages with Business and Industry and Post Secondary education, and greater involvement in career planning initiatives at all levels. Data available to describe the success of the Career Preparation initiatives was lacking.In addition, additional data suggests that community college enrollments in workforce readiness programs (“technical education”) have been declining over the reporting period. Success Measures 1.Develop career-technical education programs in collaboration with business and industry that promote workforce training and employment opportunities that respond to industry needs and projections:
3.Develop a comprehensive program for tracking student graduation, goal attainment, job placement and wage data to evaluate the effectiveness of workforce training programs and initiatives.
All K-12 districts in the Region
were actively involved in the Career Preparation initiative of the State.
The “Gap Analysis” process undertaken as part of that initiative identified
several areas for emphasis related to workforce preparation at the high
school level. Areas identified as needing attention included Academic Preparation
and Curriculum Integration (between “academic” and “technical” faculty);
greater emphasis on offering “Career Pathways” as part of the school curriculum;
increased activity related to career awareness, exploration and assessments;
greater emphasis on student Educational Development Plans (EDP’s); College
placements; provision of employability skills and technical education;
availability of work-based learning experiences and increases in the availability
of articulation agreements between schools and colleges. Data describing
the results of the gap analysis and implementation of the plan developed
from that analysis are not yet available. The intention of the Career Preparation
Initiative and Gap Analysis was to strengthen linkages between education
and the world of work. There is
Enrollment in Career Technical Education (CTE) programs at the high school or community college level varies with the size of the school, or in the case of the community colleges with the college’s location. K-12 districts with larger enrollments are able to offer students a greater variety of program choices, but all districts participate in career development programs to some level or degree. Small schools in the Region can and do send students to the career centers, however distance, transportation and time issues limit the participation of students from the smaller districts in these programs. Enrollments in CTE programs represent approximately 15-20 percent of the student population and include students who are enrolled in the programs from outlying districts. Graduations from the CTE programs have averaged from 65-100% for the schools reporting. Data for CTE enrollments and completions is incomplete for all districts and reporting years. Programs having the greatest enrollment, based on existing data, include agriculture, marketing, business service technologies, and welding. Programs specific for workforce training at the high school level in “high-skill high-wage” jobs would appear to be limited. Enrollment and completion data for community college based technical education and workforce development programs is likewise incomplete for the reporting years. However, data available suggest that enrollments in community college based technical education programs have declined over the reporting period, with the greatest decline at North Central Michigan College which serves Cheboygan and Otsego counties (two of the three counties in the 8 county Region with the largest populations). Programs having the greatest enrollments at the community colleges include criminal justice/law enforcement, concrete technology, auto, machine tool, nursing/health care, business, accounting and computer aided design.Not all community colleges offer the same programs. As an example, Concrete Technology is offered only at Alpena Community College the area in which this industry is located. Student completion data from the community colleges, as regards the occupational/technical programs, is incomplete but suggests that these programs do not have a high number of students completing their technical programs. It is assumed that students leave their college programs to obtain jobs.Colleges have been unable to track these students and are therefore unable to determine the actual cause of the students’ non-return to the classroom. JOB TRAINING Priority Goal III: Strengthen Job Training and Re-training for Adults Data from the Broad Scan shows the Northeast Region typically has higher unemployment rates than the state annual average and lower educational attainment levels. Success Measures 1.Collect data regarding the established active partnerships between business /industry and educational entities, and establish targets for increased active partnerships at all levels of education. 2.Increase the awareness of and participation in training opportunities available through state initiatives. 3.Compile complete skill attainment data for adult basic education and developmental education programs at the community colleges and establish improvement targets for the next three years. 4.The scan data indicates high annual unemployment levels as compared with the state and nation, as well as low placement wages. Plan for the next 3 years:
Overall the population has been increasing across the Region. However, the demographics of the Region show decreasing percentages for the 18 to 24 and 24-44 age groups for all eight counties within the Region, and as a percentage of the population comprising a lower percent than the statewide percentage for these two age groups. [See Age Distribution data, Appendix A, Table 3] The percent of the population (over age 25) with a high school diploma or greater is significantly lower than the percent of high school students graduating in various districts. There is some evidence through local school district follow-up surveys, that many of the students leave the area following high school or some college. This decrease is prime workforce age population the cause of some concern regarding the current and future workforce for the Region. Adult education programs are offered in five of the 17 school districts in the Region. The enrollment numbers vary significantly, with some programs providing GED opportunities to individuals in local county correctional facilities. The adult education completion rates range from 48 percent to 89 percent during the reporting years, with the average rate being between 58 and 60 percent for the last three years. The budget figures differ substantially depending on whether the program is operated in a dedicated facility, with the associated overhead expenses, or in a existing school facility, where such expenses are covered. Consequently, it is difficult to draw a meaningful correlation between the budget figures and the student outcomes.The number of students earning either their GED or Diploma has generally been increasing over the reporting period, with the vast majority receiving their GED[See Adult Education data, Appendix B, 43.] The Career and Technical Education programs at the high school level are geared to provide the vocational training necessary for many in-demand occupations. Enrollments are greatest in the following program areas:agriculture, marketing, business service technologies, automotive and welding.From the schools offering CTE programs the percent of graduating students completing CTE, range from 65-100 percent. The percent of CTE students that participate in some type of continuing education range from 43 to 75 percent, thus impacting the number of students who are entering the workforce upon the completion of the program [See CTE data, Appendix B, Tables 38-39). There are currently some existing partnership efforts between business/ industry and education as evidenced by the Daimler-Chrysler Curriculum Integration Project in Cheboygan, as well as the Cooperative Educational programs, Work Study programs and Job Shadowing. Anecdotal evidence indicates job shadowing is being utilized as part of the Career Prep effort.Co-op programs are available to students in some districts, and appear to be related to school size. The data from the school districts is incomplete in this area at this time, there is a need for greater information as well as participation. State supported initiatives, such as MichiganWorks!, Work First, WIA/JTPA, Employment Service Agency and vocational rehabilitation services, are other potential labor sources. Many of these programs offer training in a variety of forms, such as On-the-Job Training, classroom training for basic and occupational skills, computer literacy skill development, employability skills and other employment skills training. Job seeking and employee searching assistance are provided through many of these programs, including the Job Bank and Talent Bank databases available on-line. The Regional placement rates for Job Training and Partnership Act programs are between 64 and 91 percent. The Michigan Rehabilitation Services Agency, serves people with severe disabilities, and provides a wide variety of job training and placement related services to its clients. The total number of individuals served in the Region has been generally been increasing annually, over the last five years, with a minor decrease in 1999.Within the eight county Region of Northeast Michigan, Michigan Rehabilitation Services have served between 825 and 950 people annually for each of the last five years, however between 56 and 60 percent were typically served (and counted) in the previous year. The rate of successful rehabilitations has fluctuated between 47 and 52 percent for the years 1996 through 1999. The percent of participants involved in advanced training, such as college or vocational training annually has been decreasing over the reporting period from 29.5 percent in 1995 to 8.5 percent in 1999. The job placement rate for counties in the Region has fluctuated, from a low of 4.4 percent for Montmorency County in 1999 to a high of 34.0 percent for Crawford County in 1998. The available training can either be provided directly by the specific program or such training can be contracted through the local community colleges. Each of the three community colleges serving the Region offers adult training/retraining programs for their respective service areas. Services offered include upgrade training, retraining, computer training, customized training, workshops and leadership skills seminars. The colleges use state and federal grant monies in conjunction with matching funds from the companies and local tax dollars to provide the training offered. Grants that have been successfully used in the Region include EDJT and CDBG to provide Career Guidance, Basic Skills, Employability Skills, Academic Skills and Technical Skills training based on individual company needs. This training is most often offered to companies with a workforce large enough to provide sufficient “trainees” so that the training is cost-effective. Since 1995-96 over 3600 adults already in the workforce have received “technical skills” training using EDJT or CDBG monies, more than 680 have received “employability skills” training. These numbers represent duplicated headcounts. Based on the data available, the number of adult employees receiving additional training under this program is increasing each year:in 1995-96 a total of 715 individuals received training, while in 1999-2000 (the last reported year) more than 2230 individuals received training and/or career guidance interventions. Enrollments in programs vary within the Region based on the industry base and on the size of the company. Data regarding enrollment and completions can be found in Tables 55 and 56 in Appendix B. The data available to date is very incomplete and does not represent the totality of activity occurring in Northeast Michigan.Based on the data available, adult training/retraining capacity in the Region has not been reached.There are many companies that would take advantage of training if it were made available to them. INCREASED WORKFORCE Priority Goal IV: Increase available workforce to address the current and emerging labor shortage There are a number of state initiatives supporting workforce training, including the previously described WIA/JTPA, EDJT and CDBG grants. However the availability of training is limited in many areas of Northeast Michigan with many smaller communities and industries not receiving the benefit of the grants. In addition, based on current data, enrollments and graduations from career-technical programs at the secondary and particularly the post-secondary levels appear to be declining. Success Measures 1.Increase the number of individuals ready to enter the workforce
Job training occurs through a variety of state initiatives, such as WIA/JTPA, EDJT, Worker Enhancement initiatives, job training for new employees, customized training for specificskill development for specific employees and employers. Funding for these initiatives comes from state grants (such as EDJT, CDBG, WIA/JTPA, etc.), employer funding and community college general funds (local tax dollars). Employer satisfaction is tracked at the completion of the specific program and six months following completion. Anecdotal evidence suggests a high rate of satisfaction with these programs, however data from the specific programs is unavailable for review and analysis. Career Tech educational programs at both the high school and community college level reflect general employment trends (such as business service technologies, agriculture, building trades, health occupation and child care). In addition, based on labor market review, some career tech programs reflect anticipated job opportunities, including manufacturing, machine tool, and computer information systems. The latter are stronger at the community colleges than the high schools, because of the skill level required.Enrollments in these programs vary and completion rates are low. It surmised that this is due to the high demand for these skills, luring program participants into related jobs prior to program completion. The recently approved M-Tec facility, to be located at Gaylord, will offer high skill training opportunities for Northeast Michigan. It is expected that the M-Tec will also act as a magnet for new and much needed high tech industry to the Northeast Michigan Region. While Gaylord is not located in the geographical center of the Region, it’s location on I-75 and near the center of Northern Michigan should enhance the capacity of the Center to offer high skill training to a wide population. The M-Tec facility will be co-located on the campus of the Alpine Regional Education Center (AREC), the “university center” facility in Gaylord that brings higher education options and opportunities to the Region.The AREC has been providing educational offerings through “distance learning” since its inception. The age distribution data indicates the percent of people over 45 years of age is increasing in all of the counties of the Northeast Region, and this percent is much greater than the percentage statewide. Represented in this age group are the “young retirees”, who are a potential source of labor and skills. The annual average unemployment rates for the Region have generally been declining, although they remain significantly higher than the state average. The January and July month average unemployment rates were also reviewed for the Region, to determine what unemployment rates are during peak employment, due to seasonal nature of some of the tourism-related businesses. The seasonal differences are most dramatic in Cheboygan County where the January unemployment numbers averaged 23 percent and the July figures averaged 3.4 percent for the years 1990 to1999, as compared to statewide averages for same period, 7.0 and 6.4 percent respectively. [See Unemployment data, Appendix A, Tables 13-16] This is accounted for by the high concentration of hospitality and tourism-based businesses located in northern Michigan, which provide seasonal and relatively low wage employment opportunities. There is some reason to believe seasonal employment is preferred by some of the population, because of the flexibility afforded by unemployment. As is the case throughout Michigan, the Northeast Region has experienced a significant increase in its corrections systems population. Based on anecdotal evidence, many of these individuals lack a high school diploma or GED, and others lack the basic skills necessary to compete successfully for meaningful jobs. While data is currently unavailable to determine the actual extent of this issue, this population potentially represents a significant additional resource for the workforce. The percent of the population living below the poverty level in seven of the eight counties of Northeast Michigan is notably higher than the statewide percentage.[See Income Statistics, Appendix A, Table 9]. HIGH-SKILL, HIGH-WAGE INDUSTRY Priority Goal V: Attract High-skill, High-wage Business and Industry to Region The data from the environmental scan confirms the limited number of high-skill, high wage opportunities within the Region . Success Measures 1.Increase the technology infrastructure
available throughout the Region, to encourage and support new business
and industry
3.Increase the public services available
in the Region, such as public transportation, childcare, health care and
higher education
4.Promote the Region through the local Chamber of Commerce offices, local and state Economic Development Corporations (EDC), and state websites. 5.Coordinate regional planning, economic
development, and career development efforts.
The largest employers in the counties of Northeast Michigan are predominantly education, government, health care and tourism-related. A review of the top ten employers (by number of employees) for each of the eight counties in the Region, revealed that top employers for six of the eight counties were in one of these above mentioned industries and between four and seven of the top ten employers in each of the counties were in these industries (See County Employment data, Appendix A, Table 22). Many of the occupations associated with these industries are lower wage and seasonal positions, combined with the fact that local wages are typically lower that the state or national averages, this may provide some explanation for people leaving the area. The projections for high growth, high openings, high wage occupations for the northeast Michigan indicate a high percentage of increase however, the data also indicates a low number of associated annual openings, thus reflecting the low number of people presently employed in these “high growth, high openings, high wage” occupations in this Region. [See Employment Projection data, Appendix A, Tables 23-30] Ground breaking has recently occurred on a Michigan Technical Education Center (M-Tec) in Gaylord, within the Northeast Michigan. This is one of 16 new technical training centers being built to provide training programs in high-wage, high-skill, high-demand occupations to increase the number of skilled employees in these fields. These centers are designed to promote partnership between business, industry and education and attract new high tech industry to the area. |